Myanmar, also known as Burma, was long considered a pariah state, isolated from the rest of the world with an appalling human rights record. For 41 years, the country was ruled by a military junta that suppressed almost all dissent and wielded absolute power in the face of international condemnation and sanctions. In 2011, a nominally civilian government led by President Thein Sein was installed and a series of reforms in the months since the new government took up office has led to hopes that decades of international isolation could be coming to an end.
In this simulation, Wikistrat asks its strategic community to map out Myanmar’s current political risk factor and possible futures (positive, negative or mixed) for the new democracy in 2015. The simulation is designed to explore the current social, political, economic and geopolitical threats to stability – i.e. its political risk – and to determine where the country is heading in terms of its social, political, economic and geopolitical future. Will Myanmar become a thriving democracy, an Asian tiger economy or will it to return to a military-directed government plagued by sectarian civil war?
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