Putin Will Be Forced to Choose Between Oligarchs and Public

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to protect an embezzling elite while also inspiring the masses impoverished by that same embezzlement will be put to the test in 2016, says Wikistrat’s Prof. Mark Galeotti.

Kremlin Photo

Already in 2015, labor unrest — the most reliable real benchmark of Russians’ dissatisfaction with their lives and government — became an increasing concern for the Kremlin. While Russians still registered broad support for President Putin himself and approved of his forward foreign policy, there was considerably less enthusiasm for the impact on their own quality of life as a result of the economic crisis caused by oil price falls, sanctions and official corruption. Of these three, the only issue on which the government can be expected to act is the last.

September 2016 will see the next elections to the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian legislature. While the Duma is relatively powerless, the elections are always treated as much as anything else as a vote of confidence in the Kremlin. As such, it will be crucial to the government to ensure a high turnout and strong support for its chosen candidates. There is no question that the regime will manage the elections to ensure that it wins — but the more blatant the rigging, the greater the chance of a repeat of the middle-class protests that followed the 2011 Duma and 2012 presidential elections. Were middle-class protests to coincide with disenchantment and active anger from the working class (increasingly Putin’s main support base), it could prove a serious embarrassment at best — and a major challenge at worst.

However, given that further foreign adventures are unlikely to have any positive impact or do anything for the economy, Putin’s ability to protect an embezzling elite while also inspiring the masses impoverished by that same embezzlement will be put to the test. Ultimately, he will either need to conclusively abandon his attempts to appeal to the latter as the “wise tsar” governing in their interests — a key plank of his legitimacy — or else he will have to adopt a more populist campaign against some of the excesses of the elite. To this end, 2016 may see a partial rehabilitation of economic reformers such as Alexei Kudrin, some high-profile sackings or prosecutions of especially venal figures, and also a renewed anti-corruption campaign that will be given particular prominence on state-controlled TV.

Click here to read all of Wikistrat’s predictions for 2016.