The history of Russia’s relations with the West suggests that the current standoff over Ukraine does not have to negate future cooperation.
To explore the required circumstances for Western actors to consider greater cooperation with Russia as desirable or necessary over the next three years, Wikistrat conducted a week-long, crowdsourced simulation with more than 60 analysts collaboratively developing more than 50 scenarios.
The findings, summarized in this report by Dr. Jelena Petrovic, focused on a number of key themes.
Analysts were clear in their assessment that Western nations will be unlikely to maintain a permanently hostile relationship with Russia, and would repair ties given a suitable opportunity.
In outlining this view, analysts placed significant emphasis on the potential for turmoil in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing heavily on the role China may play in the coming years.
A satisfactory resolution to the Ukraine crisis is nevertheless a prerequisite for any rapprochement, given the damage the ongoing crisis has already caused. At least in the short term, Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and continued support for Donbas separatists are deal-breakers for geopolitical cooperation between East and West. Absent the willingness of either side to change its position, only a disastrous common threat is likely to bring about another era of cooperation.
Click here or on the cover image to download the full PDF report.
For more information about Wikistrat and for access to the full simulation archive, contact [email protected].