North Korea is the last truly totalitarian regime on earth. It is unlikely to forever stay that way.
In June, Wikistrat ran an 11-day multistage crowdsourced simulation to explore the various pathways by which North Korea could collapse, assess which of the pathways are the most plausible/likely, and “game out” the ways in which other actors are likely to respond.
More than 70 analysts participated in the simulation – including PhDs, former military and diplomatic personnel, and other expert members of our Asia-Pacific, Russia, North America and Military desks.
This presentation contains their findings:
- The analysts argued that the death of Kim Jong-un is a likely catalyst for major change inside North Korea. Other scenarios include a pro-Chinese coup and a genuine popular uprising against the dictatorship.
- It is possible South Korea would take advantage of unrest in the North to reunify the peninsula on its own terms, something that would be tremendously destabilizing to the region as well as the U.S.-China relationship.
- Japan is at a strategic disadvantage in any scenario dealing with the collapse of North Korea and will be forced to depend on its relationship with the U.S. to exert any leverage over the situation.
Click here or on one of the thumbnails to download the presentation and learn more.