While the thought of selling 1.3 billion wristwatches or shoeing 2.6 billion feet is a tempting proposition for exporters, the promised bonanza of the Chinese consumer market has proven elusive for many.
This is also true for producers of domestic goods and services in China who have had to struggle against what some would say is a deserved bias against Chinese products, given the rampant quality control problems that have occurred in many areas.
Now, argues Wikistrat’s Hugh Stephens in this new report, the Chinese economy is reaching a turning point
Exports are flattening and the economy is no longer expected to grow at the double-digit rates of the past. China can no longer afford to continue to be the world’s leading exporter of low-tech industrial products; it is reaching the limits of growth as its citizens choke in smog-ridden cities, clean water is in ever-decreasing supply and its population transitions into an inverse pyramid age structure.
The year 2016 will see the beginning of a transition.
Change will not happen overnight. The Chinese ship of state is like a large ocean liner. Changes in direction have to be signaled first from the bridge (the Party) before the engines kick in to start effecting a shift in direction. Slowly at first, the bow begins to turn until it is evident to all concerned which way the ship is moving. Gradually the shift picks up speed and impetus until the movement becomes irresistible.
Click here or on the cover image to download the report.
About the author
Wikistrat Senior Analyst
Former Senior Vice President, Public Policy (Asia-Pacific) for Time Warner