Chances are Iran will not look dramatically different in 2020 than it does now, with the main factor shaping the Islamic republic’s stability being the preservation of the delicate balance between the revolutionary and republican axes.
In this report, Wikistrat Senior Analyst Dr. Raz Zimmt argues that evolutionary developments are likely to continue, but that they will not turn into political demands or lead to major political change.
There are other scenarios in which Iran becomes either more republican, more Islamic, or sees a complete upheaval of the current regime.
But the prospects for violent or revolutionary change are low, according to Zimmt. The Iranian public is more interested in evolutionary changes following years of revolutionary transformation, a prolonged war, political and economic instability and international pressures. Only under exceptional circumstances, such as unusual political repression or an economic crisis, would this calculation change.
The Iranian political system, meanwhile, will likely to continue to be characterized by internal power struggles, especially between those who are elected (the government and the parliament) and the unelected (especially the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards and the religious establishment). A sudden change in one of those institutions — for example, Ali Khamenei’s demise or the election of a new president with a different political orientation — could bring about a significant change in the interaction within the regime and affect its stability.
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About the author
Dr. Raz Zimmt
Wikistrat Senior Analyst
Research Fellow at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel-Aviv University
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