The fall of President Bashar Al-Assad is unlikely to end the war in Syria and could present his opponents abroad with a dilemma: Should they accept what is likely to be an Iranian puppet state in the northwest, or expand their involvement in the conflict to defeat both the remnants of the regime and ISIS in the east?
In an online, crowdsourced simulation, Wikistrat’s analysts looked at four scenarios for Syria’s future should the Assad regime fall, and explored how each possibility would affect regional actors. The four separate “regime’s end” scenarios respectively involved a violent end to the regime, continued fighting, a peaceful transition or external intervention.
The majority of the analysts’ assessments were clustered under the first two scenarios, reflecting their collective skepticism that the five-year-old conflict can still be resolved peacefully or that other countries will escalate their involvement at this point.
Given the external participants in the war and the geostrategic significance of Syria itself, both a continuation of the conflict and its termination would affect the regional balance of power and have a strong impact on neighboring countries and non-state actors.
In this report, the simulation’s lead analyst, Dr. Benedetta Berti, summarizes the implications of each of the four scenarios for actors in the region and the United States.
Click here or on the cover image to download the full PDF report.
Dr. Berti is a Senior Analyst in Wikistrat’s network and a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, as well as a Kreitman Post-Doctoral Fellow at Ben Gurion University. Her research focuses on human security and internal conflicts, as well as on post-conflict stabilization and consolidation – specifically the integration of armed groups, governance and crisis management.
For more information about Wikistrat and for access to the full simulation archive, contact [email protected].