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China-Taiwan Tensions

EXPLORING DOWNSTREAM CONSEQUENCES
December 13-17, 2021

The increase in Chinese military activity in the straits of Taiwan over the past few months has caused global concerns as tensions between the countries are at their worst in 40 years.

 

While it is unclear whether Beijing is planning to invade the island, many experts are concerned that Taiwan's government is moving toward a formal declaration of independence, a move that could lead to further escalation between the two countries.

 

Adding to the boiling tensions are China’s nuclear and military buildup, matched by an aggressive foreign policy that has been recently applied in Hong Kong, last year's clashes with India, and the recent hypersonic missile test.

As tensions surrounding Taiwan continue to rise, the risk of a miscalculation leading to a conflict between the two countries is now at a level never seen before.

Background

Between December 13-17, top experts from around the world  collaborated in an interactive simulation in order to:

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The simulation consisted of two phases:

Phase I (December 13-15):

The crowd was asked to construct a policy option by identifying an action by one of the three actors (US, China, Taiwan) and analyzing possible downstream consequences in terms of its relations with the other two:

The Simulation

Map the potential actions that could lead to miscalculation and further escalation between China and Taiwan

Identify the steps and strategies that should be explored in order to avert a cross-strait crisis

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Escalation

De-escalation

Miscalculation

Phase II (December 16-17):

The crowd voted on the likelihood of a Chinese invasion and how the US will respond.