With Iran holding Hormuz and the Houthis threatening Bab al-Mandab, both chokepoints around the Arabian Peninsula are contested. ECFR Gulf expert Dr. Cinzia Bianco explains why the Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia tracks the U.S.-Iran war, why the Houthis bypassed Marib's oil to move on the strait, and why Riyadh is seeking a narrow U.S. operation along Yemen's coast. She also lays out the Saudi worst, best, and black swan scenarios, including a Russian-brokered deal over

A drone carrying explosives over Lithuania and flares fired at a Danish helicopter drew protests and nothing further. Russia analyst Keir Giles assesses which of NATO's lines Moscow has approached, why the alliance still deters the attack it was built for, and why nobody has drawn a line below Article 5. He sets out three conditions Russia would need before crossing, and argues the likelier target sits well behind the front line.

A war launched to dismantle Iran's nuclear program has paused with Iran's enriched uranium stockpile intact and the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. Dr. Sina Azodi assesses the Islamabad MOU: why any final deal will structurally resemble the JCPOA, why Iran's security-minded new leadership has stronger incentives to pursue the bomb than before, and why Iran emerges from the war more confident than before.