Seventeen days into Operation Epic Fury, Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has no exit strategy, and the Gulf States face a conflict reshaping the region's security architecture. Dr. James M. Dorsey assesses why escalation remains more likely than resolution and what the post-war Middle East could look like.

As Operation Epic Fury enters its third week, Wikistrat's second expert survey reveals a striking shift: Iran's regime is proving more durable than expected, while escalation risks widen across the region. 12 senior Iran specialists assess regime stability, US and Iranian miscalculations, and the conflict's most dangerous unknowns.

For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars. Two weeks of Iranian strikes have shattered that narrative. In this Wikistrat analysis, Dr. Neil Quilliam examines how the GCC is absorbing the shock and what the post conflict landscape means for the region's security, economy, and diplomatic future.

Washington is ready to declare victory, but inside Iran the picture is far less conclusive. The regime has absorbed the worst of the air campaign, installed Khamenei's son as successor, and is already planning to rebuild its deterrent underground. The opposition is fragmented, the diaspora is discredited, and the ethnic fault lines that could reshape the country remain poorly understood. Ahmad Hashemi breaks down why the real strategic challenge begins the moment the bombing

Seven days into Operation Epic Fury, the expert community is divided. Wikistrat surveyed ten senior Iran specialists on regime stability, protest likelihood, and the prospects for regime change. The results reveal sharp fault lines, and a consistent signal: the longer this crisis runs, the harder it gets for the Islamic Republic to survive it. Download the report.

Six days into the U.S.-Israeli air campaign, the Islamic Republic is battered but functioning. Dr. Sina Azodi assesses the regime's resilience, the opposition's limitations, and why bombing alone has never produced regime change.

Three days into “Operation Epic Fury,” the headlines say war—but the strategy remains unclear. In a deep analysis with Iran expert Alex Vatanka, we explore why Iranians aren’t revolting, how Tehran is playing the long game, and what real success in this conflict would even look like. The military picture may be evolving, but the political and human dynamics will determine what comes next.

The U.S. sees an Iran that should surrender. Khamenei sees surrender as a path to regime collapse. Wikistrat's latest webinar with Dr. Raz Zimmt unpacks the collision of worldviews driving the crisis toward military confrontation, and what a U.S. strike would mean for the regime, the opposition, Hezbollah, and the Gulf states.

The January 2026 protests followed a familiar cycle: crowds in the streets, a brutal crackdown, an internet blackout, then quiet. Wikistrat's latest report explores why Iran's opposition remains unable to convert deep public anger into lasting political leverage.

Thousands dead, internet blackouts, and a currency in freefall, Iran is facing sustained nationwide unrest met with unprecedented brutality. Wikistrat convened Dr. Sina Azodi, Ahmad Hashemi, and Alex Vatanka to assess what makes this wave different, why elite cohesion still matters, and the scenarios ahead, from continued repression to IRGC consolidation, regime collapse, or fragmentation.

What could reshape geopolitics in 2026? Wikistrat's latest report maps five wildcard scenarios: an IRGC coup in Iran, Chinese humanoids deployed in Ukraine, Pakistan's military forced to restore civilian rule, China's EUV breakthrough, and a U.S. Rust Belt revolt against automation. Not predictions, but stress tests for what's next.

Iran faces its worst water crisis in modern history. Reservoirs near Tehran have fallen to single-digit capacity, triggering rationing and official warnings of potential evacuation. This strategic risk assessment analyzes how water scarcity will reshape Iran's stability and regional posture through 2029, examining protest flashpoints, subsidence threats, Helmand River tensions with Afghanistan, and the governance failures turning environmental stress into political crisis.

Iran’s nuclear program is trapped between escalation, retreat, and a fragile status quo. In this webinar, Dr. Sina Azodi explains why Tehran views enrichment as essential, how succession politics and regional pressures shape its choices, and why time remains Iran’s most powerful tool. This analysis breaks down the forces driving Iran’s strategy and the scenarios that could define its next moves.

As Iran battles twin wildfires, including one in the UNESCO listed Hyrcanian forests, Tehran is facing its worst water crisis in six decades. The fires, fueled by drought and limited resources, expose deeper gaps in crisis management and environmental protection.

Information warfare is entering a new era. From botnets and deepfakes to AI-driven influence, the tools have changed but the mission remains the same: shaping perceptions and undermining trust. In our September 9 webinar, Ari Ben Am of Telemetry Data Labs and FDD examined how today’s information operations target not only states but also the private sector, and what best, worst, and black swan futures could look like.

As Israel and Iran traded blows, would Moscow and Beijing truly back Tehran if conflict escalated—or is the “Axis” narrative overstated? In a July 10 webinar, Dr. Richard Weitz examined China and Russia’s cautious reactions, the lessons learned, and what the limits of this partnership reveal. Despite rhetoric of solidarity, the Israel-Iran war exposed the transactional nature of the axis, raising questions about its resilience in a shifting global order.

Iran faces its most critical juncture since the Islamic Revolution. Following Israeli strikes on its nuclear and missile programs, Tehran must decide between restraint and escalation as succession looms and the IRGC gains influence. Dr. Raz Zimmt analyzes Iran’s next moves, from rebuilding deterrence to risking a nuclear breakout. Will Iran stabilize under pressure, or will it spiral into deeper conflict? The choices made now will shape the region’s future.

Following a 12-day war with Israel, Iran faces a turning point in its strategic and domestic trajectory. In this expert webinar, Dr. Sina Azodi analyzes the breakdown of Iran’s defense doctrine, rising influence of the IRGC, and the regime’s internal dilemma between repression and reform. With its nuclear program under pressure and regional alliances strained, Tehran must now choose between escalation, diplomacy, or deeper isolation.

Six months after Assad’s fall, Syria faces a fragile transition led by former jihadist Ahmed al-Shara. In a recent webinar, Charles Lister examined the country’s uncertain path—balancing newfound international legitimacy with economic collapse, armed fragmentation, and regional tensions. Can Syria avoid renewed conflict and rebuild, or is the entire transition resting on a single man’s shoulders? Read key insights from the discussion.

As Israel escalates strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran’s leadership faces a critical dilemma: preserve ideological purity or ensure regime survival. In a June 20 webinar, Dr. Saeid Golkar analyzed the regime’s internal calculations, elite fractures, and growing civilian unrest. He revealed why Iran’s leaders may prefer military defeat over political humiliation—and what this means for the region’s future.