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Wikistrat Report: When Israel Strikes Iran

Updated: Sep 20, 2023

In light of the nuclear talks in Vienna, Wikistrat ran an interactive simulation with 30 leading Iran and Middle East experts in order to explore the downstream consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

In the exercise, three different scenarios were simulated:

  • The first scenario focused on a successful Israeli strike, postponing Iran’s nuclear program by five years.

  • The second scenario outlined a failed strike that led to a delay of no more than a year in Iran’s nuclear program.

  • The third scenario explored a reality in which Israel was able to carry out a partially successful strike, slowing the Iranian nuclear program by two to three years at most.

Every scenario was observed from the perspectives of five key players: Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, the US, and Russia. Each one encountered different dilemmas in the new geostrategic environment.

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