The Iran war hasn't raised the risk of a Chinese move on Taiwan. What Beijing is learning from the campaign is the bigger concern. Wikistratsurveyed 10 leading PLA and China experts on Taiwan risk, military lessons, and Beijing's next moves.

One month into Operation Epic Fury, eleven senior Iran specialists assess the conflict's trajectory. The regime is holding, domestic unrest has vanished as a factor, and the options that might break the stalemate, from Kharg Island to a full ground invasion, carry risks experts assess as greater than the stalemate itself.

Seventeen days into Operation Epic Fury, Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has no exit strategy, and the Gulf States face a conflict reshaping the region's security architecture. Dr. James M. Dorsey assesses why escalation remains more likely than resolution and what the post-war Middle East could look like.

As Operation Epic Fury enters its third week, Wikistrat's second expert survey reveals a striking shift: Iran's regime is proving more durable than expected, while escalation risks widen across the region. 12 senior Iran specialists assess regime stability, US and Iranian miscalculations, and the conflict's most dangerous unknowns.

For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars. Two weeks of Iranian strikes have shattered that narrative. In this Wikistrat analysis, Dr. Neil Quilliam examines how the GCC is absorbing the shock and what the post conflict landscape means for the region's security, economy, and diplomatic future.

Washington is ready to declare victory, but inside Iran the picture is far less conclusive. The regime has absorbed the worst of the air campaign, installed Khamenei's son as successor, and is already planning to rebuild its deterrent underground. The opposition is fragmented, the diaspora is discredited, and the ethnic fault lines that could reshape the country remain poorly understood. Ahmad Hashemi breaks down why the real strategic challenge begins the moment the bombing

Seven days into Operation Epic Fury, the expert community is divided. Wikistrat surveyed ten senior Iran specialists on regime stability, protest likelihood, and the prospects for regime change. The results reveal sharp fault lines, and a consistent signal: the longer this crisis runs, the harder it gets for the Islamic Republic to survive it. Download the report.

Six days into the U.S.-Israeli air campaign, the Islamic Republic is battered but functioning. Dr. Sina Azodi assesses the regime's resilience, the opposition's limitations, and why bombing alone has never produced regime change.

Three days into “Operation Epic Fury,” the headlines say war—but the strategy remains unclear. In a deep analysis with Iran expert Alex Vatanka, we explore why Iranians aren’t revolting, how Tehran is playing the long game, and what real success in this conflict would even look like. The military picture may be evolving, but the political and human dynamics will determine what comes next.

Thousands dead, internet blackouts, and a currency in freefall, Iran is facing sustained nationwide unrest met with unprecedented brutality. Wikistrat convened Dr. Sina Azodi, Ahmad Hashemi, and Alex Vatanka to assess what makes this wave different, why elite cohesion still matters, and the scenarios ahead, from continued repression to IRGC consolidation, regime collapse, or fragmentation.

How do the Houthis fund their Red Sea operations despite international sanctions? New Wikistrat research exposes a $900M cryptocurrency laundering network connecting Iranian oil sales, stolen Ukrainian grain, and shell companies across three continents. This report maps the financial infrastructure sustaining one of the Middle East's most resilient non-state military forces.

What could reshape geopolitics in 2026? Wikistrat's latest report maps five wildcard scenarios: an IRGC coup in Iran, Chinese humanoids deployed in Ukraine, Pakistan's military forced to restore civilian rule, China's EUV breakthrough, and a U.S. Rust Belt revolt against automation. Not predictions, but stress tests for what's next.

Taiwan is not on the brink of a 2027 invasion; the real danger is unfolding quietly in the gray zone. Dr. Minxin Pei dismantles the countdown narrative, arguing Beijing's destabilizing tools are already in motion, from military drills to pressure on undersea cables. The flashpoint is 2028, when elections in Taipei, Washington, and the Philippines collide with a Chinese leadership refining hybrid warfare options that stop short of war yet carry strategic shockwaves.

A new Wikistrat report examines four scenarios for regime change in Venezuela and their downstream consequences

Russia expert Mark Galeotti joined Wikistrat to examine the Kremlin's actual objectives, the forces shaping Russian decision-making, whether Moscow's strategy is working, and what might force Putin to change course

As Israel and Iran traded blows, would Moscow and Beijing truly back Tehran if conflict escalated—or is the “Axis” narrative overstated? In a July 10 webinar, Dr. Richard Weitz examined China and Russia’s cautious reactions, the lessons learned, and what the limits of this partnership reveal. Despite rhetoric of solidarity, the Israel-Iran war exposed the transactional nature of the axis, raising questions about its resilience in a shifting global order.

As headlines fade, the Ukraine war grinds on with global stakes. In a Wikistrat webinar, Keir Giles of Chatham House argues the conflict is not entering a new phase but continuing a brutal war of attrition, with Russia’s imperial goals unchanged. Ukraine’s survival hinges on external support, while Europe remains unprepared for what comes next. Read key insights on what’s really shaping the future of this war.

Iran faces its most critical juncture since the Islamic Revolution. Following Israeli strikes on its nuclear and missile programs, Tehran must decide between restraint and escalation as succession looms and the IRGC gains influence. Dr. Raz Zimmt analyzes Iran’s next moves, from rebuilding deterrence to risking a nuclear breakout. Will Iran stabilize under pressure, or will it spiral into deeper conflict? The choices made now will shape the region’s future.

Following a 12-day war with Israel, Iran faces a turning point in its strategic and domestic trajectory. In this expert webinar, Dr. Sina Azodi analyzes the breakdown of Iran’s defense doctrine, rising influence of the IRGC, and the regime’s internal dilemma between repression and reform. With its nuclear program under pressure and regional alliances strained, Tehran must now choose between escalation, diplomacy, or deeper isolation.

Six months after Assad’s fall, Syria faces a fragile transition led by former jihadist Ahmed al-Shara. In a recent webinar, Charles Lister examined the country’s uncertain path—balancing newfound international legitimacy with economic collapse, armed fragmentation, and regional tensions. Can Syria avoid renewed conflict and rebuild, or is the entire transition resting on a single man’s shoulders? Read key insights from the discussion.