Expert Analysis: Who Runs Iran
- Wikistrat
- 54 minutes ago
- 2 min read
More than six weeks after he was announced as Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has still not been seen or heard. His image runs on billboards across Tehran while his statements are read aloud by intermediaries. In a new report, Wikistrat asked eleven senior Iran specialists who is actually making decisions inside the Islamic Republic and how the system negotiates when its Supreme Leader is silent
With a second round of Islamabad talks already collapsed and the ceasefire holding by inertia, every capital reading Iran is asking the same question: who is authorized to close a deal, and on what? To answer that, Wikistrat surveyed eleven senior Iran specialists on April 22. Some of the key insights are presented below.
The Supreme Leader's Office Has Been Hollowed Out
Fewer than half the panel places Mojtaba Khamenei in real strategic authority. Reportedly wounded in the opening strikes of the war, dependent on intermediaries and AI-generated video for any public presence, and without his father's patronage network, he does not function as Supreme Leader in the sense his father did. His office has become a legitimacy wrapper for decisions taken elsewhere.
The IRGC Is the Center of Gravity, and It Is Not Unitary
The panel gave its strongest consensus of the survey to a single proposition: the IRGC under Ahmad Vahidi now dominates decisions on war, Hormuz, and the nuclear file. Vahidi outranked both the Supreme Leader and the President on effective influence, with the President scoring lowest of any rated figure in the survey.
But multiple experts flagged internal IRGC factions: cautious Iran-Iraq war veterans around Vahidi, separate networks around other former commanders, and an unretired old guard operating outside any formal chart. Treating the Guards as a single actor will produce wrong predictions.
The Compromise Ladder: Where Tehran Will Bend
Asked where Iran might actually compromise, the panel produced a clear ranking:
The nuclear file is the most likely place for a deal. If any agreement gets reached, it starts here.
Hormuz is also on the table, but only up to a point. Tehran may adjust its behavior in the Strait, but it will not give up the leverage itself.
Regional proxies sit closer to the hardline end. Abandoning the axis is not on offer.
Ballistic missiles are the hardest red line in the survey. Pushing Iran to dismantle them is the fastest way to blow up the talks.
The Sharpest Disagreement: What Replaces Mojtaba If He Fails
If Mojtaba cannot consolidate, the panel expects the IRGC to end up in effective control, though the path there is contested. The prevailing view is that the system installs another cleric, weaker than Mojtaba, with the Guards exercising decisive influence from behind him. A minority view holds that cleric would be so diminished the outcome amounts to open military rule. One expert raised the prospect of an internal IRGC coup. On the underlying point the panel converges: the current arrangement is a transitional phase, not a stable equilibrium.