A war launched to dismantle Iran's nuclear program has paused with Iran's enriched uranium stockpile intact and the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. Dr. Sina Azodi assesses the Islamabad MOU: why any final deal will structurally resemble the JCPOA, why Iran's security-minded new leadership has stronger incentives to pursue the bomb than before, and why Iran emerges from the war more confident than before.

In a new Wikistrat report, seven leading Iran experts assess Tehran's new doctrine of fusing Lebanon and Iran into a single battlespace, the Trump-Netanyahu gap test, the escalation ladder, and the 48-hour indicators that will define the rest of the year

Six weeks after his elevation, Iran's new Supreme Leader has still not been seen or heard. So who is making the decisions? Wikistrat surveyed eleven senior Iran specialists on Tehran's ruling core, the rise of the IRGC under Vahidi, and where the Islamabad talks can realistically land.

Wikistrat surveyed eight leading Gulf security experts on how Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar will respond to the US-Iran deal taking shape. The panel converged on Hormuz as the defining red line and on a three-year regional arms race if missile limits are excluded, and split sharply on whether Riyadh goes nuclear.

The Iran war hasn't raised the risk of a Chinese move on Taiwan. What Beijing is learning from the campaign is the bigger concern. Wikistratsurveyed 10 leading PLA and China experts on Taiwan risk, military lessons, and Beijing's next moves.

One month into Operation Epic Fury, eleven senior Iran specialists assess the conflict's trajectory. The regime is holding, domestic unrest has vanished as a factor, and the options that might break the stalemate, from Kharg Island to a full ground invasion, carry risks experts assess as greater than the stalemate itself.

As Operation Epic Fury enters its third week, Wikistrat's second expert survey reveals a striking shift: Iran's regime is proving more durable than expected, while escalation risks widen across the region. 12 senior Iran specialists assess regime stability, US and Iranian miscalculations, and the conflict's most dangerous unknowns.

The U.S. sees an Iran that should surrender. Khamenei sees surrender as a path to regime collapse. Wikistrat's latest webinar with Dr. Raz Zimmt unpacks the collision of worldviews driving the crisis toward military confrontation, and what a U.S. strike would mean for the regime, the opposition, Hezbollah, and the Gulf states.

The January 2026 protests followed a familiar cycle: crowds in the streets, a brutal crackdown, an internet blackout, then quiet. Wikistrat's latest report explores why Iran's opposition remains unable to convert deep public anger into lasting political leverage.

Trump's second presidency reached one year without triggering predicted catastrophes, yet fundamental tensions remain unresolved. Alliances strained but held, tariffs disrupted without collapsing trade, and military force came in sharp bursts. Dr. Richard Weitz examines what this volatile year reveals about Trump's instincts, how the world adapted to his methods, and whether avoiding disaster equals success or simply deferred reckoning.

Thousands dead, internet blackouts, and a currency in freefall, Iran is facing sustained nationwide unrest met with unprecedented brutality. Wikistrat convened Dr. Sina Azodi, Ahmad Hashemi, and Alex Vatanka to assess what makes this wave different, why elite cohesion still matters, and the scenarios ahead, from continued repression to IRGC consolidation, regime collapse, or fragmentation.

How do the Houthis fund their Red Sea operations despite international sanctions? New Wikistrat research exposes a $900M cryptocurrency laundering network connecting Iranian oil sales, stolen Ukrainian grain, and shell companies across three continents. This report maps the financial infrastructure sustaining one of the Middle East's most resilient non-state military forces.

What could reshape geopolitics in 2026? Wikistrat's latest report maps five wildcard scenarios: an IRGC coup in Iran, Chinese humanoids deployed in Ukraine, Pakistan's military forced to restore civilian rule, China's EUV breakthrough, and a U.S. Rust Belt revolt against automation. Not predictions, but stress tests for what's next.

Taiwan is not on the brink of a 2027 invasion; the real danger is unfolding quietly in the gray zone. Dr. Minxin Pei dismantles the countdown narrative, arguing Beijing's destabilizing tools are already in motion, from military drills to pressure on undersea cables. The flashpoint is 2028, when elections in Taipei, Washington, and the Philippines collide with a Chinese leadership refining hybrid warfare options that stop short of war yet carry strategic shockwaves.

Physical AI is ending 50 years of rigid robotics. Robots now understand intent, learn from each other via the cloud, and will soon cost less than a year's salary. Dr. Graham Ong-Webb maps out four scenarios for the decade ahead, from accelerated stability to chaotic tipping point, and warns that the real threat isn't the humanoids themselves, but the widening gap between technological capability and institutional readiness.

China dominates the processing and magnet making that power global clean energy and high tech industries, raising fears of overdependence as rare earths return to the geopolitical spotlight. In this webinar, Dr. Marina Zhang explains how China built its ecosystem, why alternatives remain costly, and what the next five years of supply, competition, and technology disruption may look like.

Many of today's most destabilizing crises weren't sudden shocks. They were slow-burning trends we watched unfold in real time. At the 10th anniversary of NYU's Riskathon, Prof. Maha Hosain Aziz revisited predictions made a decade ago and measured them against our fractured present. Her sobering conclusion: the warning signs were visible all along. The question is whether we'll finally act on what foresight tells us before it's too late.

Iran’s nuclear program is trapped between escalation, retreat, and a fragile status quo. In this webinar, Dr. Sina Azodi explains why Tehran views enrichment as essential, how succession politics and regional pressures shape its choices, and why time remains Iran’s most powerful tool. This analysis breaks down the forces driving Iran’s strategy and the scenarios that could define its next moves.

What does Gaza teach China about Taiwan? As the Middle East ceasefire holds, Beijing draws critical lessons about U.S. alliance commitments and power projection. New analysis reveals how Chinese strategists use Gaza as a test case for understanding Washington's willingness to support Taiwan in a potential crisis.

A new Wikistrat report examines four scenarios for regime change in Venezuela and their downstream consequences