China and the Politics of the Gaza Ceasefire: Special Report

As the Middle East enters a fragile period of calm following the Gaza ceasefire, Beijing faces a critical moment of recalibration. Drawing on interviews with leading China experts, Wikistrat's new report analyses how Beijing interprets the Middle East after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and what this means for U.S.-China competition, Gulf partnerships, and regional reconstruction

After two years of war, proxy flare-ups and shifting alliances, a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has brought a rare pause to the Middle East’s turmoil. Wikistrat's new report reveals how Beijing views these developments not through immediate gains, but through the lens of continuity, perception, and long-term influence. 

The report is based on the analyses of China experts Prof. Zhiqun Zhu, Prof. Kerry Brown, and Dr. Andrea Ghiselli.

Download the report here

Key findings include:

• Calibrating for Taiwan: China assumes the U.S. would replicate its Gaza playbook for Taiwan, providing intelligence and advanced weapons systems like the planned "T-Dome" defense shield, while Beijing remains uncertain whether American forces would engage directly.

• U.S. Presence Perceived as Victory: Chinese analysts frame the Gaza ceasefire outcome as "a clear victory for the United States," rejecting Western narratives of American retreat and reaffirming their view that Washington remains the strongest extra-regional power in the Middle East.

• Reconstruction as a Quiet Chinese Supply Chain Lead: China is actively positioning for Gaza's estimated $70 billion reconstruction, with Chinese firms like Shandong Weichang competing in UNDP tenders for 45,000 mobile homes, even losing bidders rely heavily on Chinese-manufactured components, giving Beijing quiet dominance over the supply chain.

• Avoiding Ownership of Failure: Beijing supports "any effort that leads to a two-state solution" but doubts the U.S.-led peace plan's viability, adopting a deliberate "wait-and-see" approach to avoid being associated with a process it expects to fail.

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Download the report here

Prof. Zhiqun Zhu Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell University. His research focuses on Chinese foreign policy, U.S.–Asia relations and East Asian political economy. He previously served as the Director of Bucknell’s China Institute and as Senior Assistant to the Consul for Press and Cultural Affairs at the U.S. Consulate General in Shanghai.

Prof. Kerry Brown

Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London. A former British diplomat and senior fellow at Chatham House, he also directed the Europe China Research and Advice Network (ECRAN), providing policy advice to the EU External Action Service, and is the author of nearly 20 books on modern Chinese politics and diplomacy.

Dr. Andrea Ghiselli

Lecturer in International Politics at the University of Exeter and Head of Research for the ChinaMed Project. He spent nine years at Fudan University in Shanghai and is a non-resident research fellow with the TOChina Hub. Expert on China’s approach to the Middle East, authoritarian foreign policy dynamics and the intersection of domestic politics and diplomacy.