China, Russia, and the Israel-Iran War: Cracks in the Axis?

As Israel and Iran clashed in a 12-day war, would Moscow and Beijing truly stand by Tehran if the conflict escalated—or is the notion of an ‘Axis’ more myth than reality? On July 10, Wikistrat hosted Dr. Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, to analyze how China and Russia reacted, what they learned, and what this reveals about the limits of their partnership with Iran. In a world of shifting alliances, the future of this axis may shape the balance of power far beyond the Middle East.

Dr. Richard Weitz is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute. His research interests include European and Eurasian regional security developments as well as US foreign and defense policies. He has written extensively in his field, recently authoring his book, “The New China-Russia Alignment: Critical Challenges to US Security.”

Key Insights

1. Minimal Support, Maximum Rhetoric 

   Russia and China condemned Israel’s strikes and offered mediation but avoided meaningful intervention. Moscow prioritized avoiding escalation while preserving dialogue with the U.S., and Beijing focused on evacuations and safeguarding its economic interests.

2. Strategic Isolation: Russia and China Benefit from Iran’s Rift with the West 

   Iran’s alienation from the West serves Russian and Chinese interests, allowing them to dominate its energy markets and limit Western re-entry while avoiding entanglement in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions or regional conflicts.

3. Sanctions Workarounds Over Arms Transfers 

   While Moscow and Beijing continue to purchase Iranian oil through sanctions evasion and provide limited dual-use technology, both remain cautious, keen to avoid direct Western retaliation that could jeopardize their broader economic interests.

4. Air Power Lessons from Israel 

   Israel’s rapid, precise air campaign underscored the power of air dominance and drone-fighter integration. Chinese strategists are studying these tactics for Taiwan scenarios, while Russia is absorbing the implications for facing NATO-level air power.

5. Axis Dependency on Regime Survival

    Iran’s current alignment with Russia and China is tied to the regime’s survival. A popular uprising or leadership transition could reorient Tehran toward Europe and the U.S., reducing Russian and Chinese influence and opening pathways for Western reintegration.

6. Best, Worst, and Wild Card Future Scenarios

   - Best Case: Iran deepens ties with BRICS and the SCO, expanding economic and limited security ties with Moscow and Beijing.

   - Worst Case: Russia and China abandon Tehran to secure broader deals with the West, isolating Iran.

   - Wild Card: Regime change pivots Iran toward the West, dismantling the axis and reshaping regional dynamics.

   
   

Despite repeated statements of solidarity, the Israel-Iran conflict revealed the real limits of the Russia-China-Iran axis. As Dr. Weitz emphasized, the alignment is transactional, constrained by economic caution and competing priorities. Whether this partnership matures into a durable counterweight to the West or fractures under pressure will depend on how these actors navigate an increasingly contested global order.