After the Ceasefire: What's Next for Israel-Iran?

Following Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, Tehran faces its most vulnerable moment since the Islamic Revolution. Its long-standing deterrence doctrine—built on proxies, missiles, and nuclear ambiguity—has been severely shaken. How will Iran’s leadership navigate this crisis while Khamenei’s frail rule nears its end? On June 30, Wikistrat hosted a webinar with Dr. Raz Zimmt to assess Iran’s post-war strategy, internal calculations, and regional trajectory.

Dr. Raz Zimmt is Director of the Iran and Shiite Axis Research Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a Research Fellow at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University.

Key Insights

1. Israel’s Strike: Necessary, but Risky

   Zimmt explained Israel’s rationale: intelligence indicated Iran’s weaponization activities, missile buildup, and a closing window of opportunity post-Hezbollah collapse. The strike degraded Iran’s programs, but whether it was worth the cost will be clear only in months as Iran may double down on nuclear ambitions.

   
   

2. Iran’s Nuclear Path: Deterrence Over Diplomacy

   Iran sees its nuclear program as regime insurance. Zimmt argued that Iran will not abandon enrichment, even under pressure, and may shift from gradual caution to accelerated breakout if it judges U.S. resolve to waver.

   
   

3. No JCPOA Reset Possible

   Even if talks resume, Iran’s advanced centrifuge infrastructure and regime priorities make a return to a JCPOA-style agreement nearly impossible. Any future deal would require Iran to retain some enrichment, a red line for Tehran.

   
   

4. Succession Looms: A Weaker Leader, Stronger IRGC

   With Khamenei visibly frail, succession planning accelerates. Zimmt noted that any new Supreme Leader will likely be weaker, giving the IRGC greater influence, possibly steering Iran toward a more militarized regime.

   
   

5. Proxies Weakened, Missiles Remain

   The collapse of Syria’s regime and Hezbollah’s defeat has gutted Iran’s proxy deterrence strategy. Yet Iran is expected to rebuild missile capabilities as its primary deterrent, investing in precision and volume to counter Israeli air defenses.

   
   

6. Russia: All Talk, No Help

   Iranian frustrations with Russia have grown, as Moscow refused to provide air defense support. Zimmt highlighted rising mistrust, but noted Tehran’s limited alternatives, pushing it closer to China and North Korea for future assistance.

   
   

7. No Detente with Israel

   Despite vulnerability, Tehran sees Israel as an ideological and strategic enemy. Zimmt emphasized that even weakened, the Islamic Republic’s stance toward Israel will not soften under current leadership.

   
   

8. Future Scenarios: From Breakout to Collapse

   Zimmt outlined three futures: (a) best case, Iran refrains from reconstitution and seeks a deal; (b) worst case, Iran attempts a nuclear breakout, triggering regional escalation; (c) black swan, a post-Khamenei leadership change leads to an unpredictable IRGC-led regime with new calculations.

   
   

Iran faces a precarious but defining juncture. As Dr. Zimmt emphasized, a constructive outcome is still within reach—but it would demand careful calibration by Tehran and a willingness to compromise. Yet the regime’s deep-seated mistrust, the uncertainty of succession, and the IRGC’s rising influence could steer it toward confrontation. Whether Iran charts a path toward cautious stability or drifts into renewed conflict will depend on decisions made in this narrow window ahead.