Expert Webinar: The Israel-Iran War

As Israel’s military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program escalates, Tehran’s leadership is grappling with existential questions about survival, deterrence, and internal cohesion. Can the Islamic Republic navigate simultaneous military strikes, elite fractures, and growing public dissent—without conceding on the very ideological pillars that have sustained it for decades? On June 20, 2025, Wikistrat hosted a webinar with Dr. Saeid Golkar, a leading expert on Iran, to explore the regime’s strategic calculations, the shifting mood inside Iran, and the potential endgames now confronting one of the region’s most entrenched autocracies.

Key Insights:

1. Regime Survival is the Absolute Priority Iran’s leadership—centered on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the IRGC—views regime survival as non-negotiable. Even a military defeat is preferable to political concessions that could fracture its ideological core.
   

2. The Public is Not Rallying Around the Flag Contrary to regime expectations, most Iranians view the conflict as a war between Israel and the Islamic Republic—not a national war. Cities like Tehran are reportedly emptying as civilians seek safety, and efforts to stoke nationalism are falling flat.

   
   

3. Elite Fractures Are Emerging Some political and clerical figures, including former President Hassan Rouhani, are quietly calling for de-escalation and a reassessment of the nuclear program. However, Khamenei’s control over institutions limits their influence.
   

4. Negotiations Would Be More Damaging Than Airstrikes Dismantling Iran’s nuclear program through negotiations would be seen by the regime’s base as a humiliating betrayal of decades-long resistance. Golkar noted the leadership would rather have Israel or the U.S. destroy its facilities than do so voluntarily.
   

5. Military Weakness Has Been Exposed In one week, Iran lost 13 senior commanders and over 1,400 military assets—revealing vulnerabilities that undermine its deterrence posture and embolden rivals like Azerbaijan and Gulf states.
   

6. Post-Conflict Iran May Resemble Post-2018 Syria If the regime survives, Golkar predicts a pivot toward intensified internal repression, elite purges, and asymmetric operations abroad—echoing the Syrian model of authoritarian resilience under pressure.
   

7. Black Swan Scenario: Military Coup from Within While highly unlikely, Golkar identified a low-probability, high-impact scenario in which elements of the Artesh (conventional army) or lower-ranking IRGC factions move against the regime if collapse appears imminent.
   

8. China and Pakistan Will Not Shift the Balance Despite rhetorical support, Beijing and Islamabad are unlikely to intervene meaningfully. Their strategic interests favor regional stability and do not extend to rescuing Tehran from military or political collapse.
   

As the conflict unfolds, Iran’s leadership appears locked in a paradox of its own making—ideologically bound to confrontation, yet strategically desperate to avoid collapse. Dr. Golkar’s analysis reveals a regime unwilling to change course voluntarily, betting instead on outlasting external pressure and preserving its internal grip. Whether this gamble results in negotiated de-escalation, a fractured elite, or a deeper slide into repression will depend not only on battlefield outcomes, but on how long Tehran’s ideological rigidity can withstand mounting internal and external shocks.