At the Brink: Examining U.S.-Venezuela Tensions and Post-Maduro Scenarios

After months of political pressure, targeted sanctions, and air and sea strikes against suspected narco-trafficking operations, tensions between Washington and Caracas have reached a critical point, bringing the possibility of regime change in Venezuela to an all-time high. A new Wikistrat report examines four scenarios for Maduro's ouster and their downstream consequences

With 65 casualties from U.S. strikes on suspected narco-trafficking vessels since September and President Trump's suggestion that Maduro's days are numbered, Washington-Caracas tensions have reached a boiling point.

Wikistrat's latest report examines four scenarios for potential regime change in Venezuela, from American surgical military intervention to sustained pressure campaigns.

The report outlines how each of Washington’s choices shapes Venezuela’s political endgames and their spillover effects on migration, regional security, and energy markets.

Key findings include:

• Washington's resolve is clear: Across all scenarios, the U.S. demonstrates unwavering determination to end Maduro's rule

• Military action would be limited: Any intervention favors precision strikes and special operations over prolonged engagement

• Post-Maduro challenges eclipse removal: Lasting stability depends on new leadership's ability to rebuild institutions and restore public trust

• Great power influence shifts immediately: Regime change would weaken Moscow and Beijing's direct access, forcing pragmatic reengagement

• The ELN threat persists: Colombia's guerrilla networks would adapt rather than disappear, potentially destabilizing border regions

• Cuba becomes a wildcard: Increased pressure on Caracas could escalate U.S.-Havana tensions

• Refugee crisis won't quickly resolve: Returns depend on economic recovery, not political change; humanitarian conditions may initially worsen

To download the report, click here.