Future-Proofing: How Can Companies Survive Through Times of Political Uncertainty?

Leaders today face not one crisis at a time, but overlapping shocks that feed into each other, what scholars call a polycrisis, creating uncertainty that demands new ways of thinking. In the latest Wikistrat webinar, Prof. Benjamin Laker drew from cases of companies that rerouted supply chains to bypass sanctions and firms that leapfrogged competitors by hiring during recessions to present counterintuitive principles for navigating this uncertainty

Webinar Recording:

Benjamin Laker is Professor of Leadership at Henley Business School, a former government advisor to HM Treasury and the US House Select Committee, and recognized by Thinkers50 as a leading global management thinker. He has advised major corporations, including Microsoft, Google, and Apple, on navigating uncertainty and pioneered influential workplace concepts like the four-day workweek and meeting-free days that have been adopted by companies worldwide.

Key Insights

1. Design for Fragmentation as the Baseline, Not the Exception

   From the 1990s to 2008, many firms benefited from liberalization, rising trade, and easier market entry. Since the 2008 financial crisis, a nationalist turn and the deconstruction of some economic and political ties have introduced more tariffs, controls, and realignment. Companies should treat these as design constraints, not alarms. Build supply chains that can switch routes, diversify suppliers, and localize key steps as needed, while maintaining tariff-aware routing and regulatory scanning to enable quick adjustments when rules change.

   
   

2. Companies Must Prepare for Polycrises

   Interlocking economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological risks amplify one another. A single disruption rarely arrives alone, and leaders must design responses that anticipate chain reactions. Success depends on recognizing how crises overlap and escalate rather than treating them in isolation.

   
   

3. Supply Chains That Can't Reconfigure Will Break

   Since 2000, many countries have reoriented toward China as a dominant trading partner. Expect further swings that alter supply chains, routing choices, and cost structures, and design footprints that can reconfigure quickly.

   
   

4. Sanctions Can Open New Business Routes

   Disruptions such as sanctions and export controls can generate openings for creative solutions. Companies that cannot move goods directly from point A to B may find advantage in routing “A to B via F,” as seen with the use of intermediaries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the Russia sanctions period. 

   
   

5. Don't Predict Every Crisis, Stress Test the Big Ones

   You cannot foresee every event, but you can model a few big scenarios with clear triggers, decision rights, and playbooks. Run tabletop drills for scenarios such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, major regional realignments, and cyber disruptions.

   
   

6. Acting Quickly Creates First-Mover Advantage

   In fast-moving situations and in disinformation storms, first-mover advantage matters. Choose a viable path and act, then iterate. Decisive motion sets the pace and forces competitors to react.

   
   

7. Use Downturns to Leapfrog Competitors

   As Prof. Benjamin Laker explained, “When companies are laying off staff, (it) is the time to actually take the staff… Similarly, if companies and your competitors are reducing R&D, now is the time to invest in R&D.” He described this counter-cyclical approach as “competitive leapfrogging,” a strategy that allows firms to gain advantage during downturns.

   
   

8. Own Your Cyber Resilience, Governments Can't Protect You

   Jurisdictional limits and obfuscated actors constrain state protection. Private companies should assume partial coverage, strengthen identity and access management, implement incident response procedures, and enforce data handling policies.

   
   

9. Managing AI Risks Requires Governance Before Expansion

   AI offers valuable productivity gains but is far from sentient intelligence. Instead of rushing into large-scale investments, companies should prioritize governance: protect confidentiality, safeguard intellectual property, and set clear policies on employee use of tools like ChatGPT. Uploading financial or HR data can mean losing control of sensitive information, making risk management as important as innovation.

   
   

10. Potential Future Scenarios for Private Companies:

    - Worst case: Total operational shutdown or market collapse

    - Best case: An interconnected world unlocking new demand and reach

    - Black swan: Artificial general intelligence reshaping jobs and business models