Marking One Year of Trump 2.0

Donald Trump's second presidency has reached the one-year mark without triggering the catastrophic outcomes many predicted, yet without resolving the fundamental tensions his approach creates. Alliances strained but held, tariffs disrupted trade flows without collapsing them, and military force was deployed in sharp bursts rather than prolonged campaigns. On January 26, Wikistrat hosted Dr. Richard Weitz to examine what this volatile first year reveals about President Trump's foreign policy instincts, how the world has adapted to his methods, and what the remainder of his term is likely to look like

Webinar Recording:

Dr. Richard Weitz is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute, where he focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policies as well as regional security in Europe, Eurasia, and East Asia. He previously served at the U.S. Department of Defense, receiving an Award for Excellence. Dr. Weitz is the author of numerous books, including The New China-Russia Alignment: Critical Challenges to U.S. Security and Rebuilding American Military Power in the Pacific. He holds a PhD from Harvard University.

Key Insights

1. The worldview remained consistent: restructure the order, not abandon it 

Trump 2.0 operates on the conviction that the post-World War II international system no longer serves American interests and must be fundamentally reorganized. This is not isolationism but assertive unilateralism: the use of U.S. power to extract better terms from allies, adversaries, and the institutional architecture Washington helped build. The administration believes the U.S. constructed global order, whatever its original benefits, no longer fits current conditions and should be restructured to deliver greater benefits to Americans.

2. Loyalty displaced experience as the cabinet selection criterion 

Unlike the first term's cabinet revolts and damaging memoirs, President Trump assembled a team defined by ideological alignment and personal loyalty. Officials were chosen not for managerial experience running complex bureaucracies, but for their willingness to execute radical change without public dissent. The president empowered them to make sweeping institutional changes while removing civil service protections throughout the bureaucracy to place loyalists at lower levels.

3. China policy moderated after Beijing retaliated effectively 

The administration began with aggressive tariffs and technology restrictions but shifted course after China matched U.S. measures and restricted critical mineral exports. Economic pragmatism overrode strategic competition. Export controls on AI chips were relaxed, criticism of the Chinese Communist Party disappeared from official rhetoric, and President Trump publicly praised Xi Jinping. The pullback suggests that when confronted by a peer willing to impose costs, the administration seeks accommodation over escalation.

4. Europe faced unprecedented criticism and demands 

The administration views European allies as weakened by failed policies on energy and immigration. The National Security Strategy expressed disappointment that Europeans aren't achieving their potential greatness, while senior officials delivered sharp public critiques. President Trump imposed tariff increases and demanded higher defense spending and weapons purchases, treating Europe through bilateral relationships rather than multilateral engagement. Europeans increasingly believe the era of reliable American partnership has permanently ended.

5. Russia policy collapsed into the Ukraine fixation 

Russia registers as a declining threat with military weaknesses exposed by the Ukraine conflict and limited economic potential beyond resource extraction. Yet President Trump remains focused on ending the Ukraine war through repeated diplomatic efforts despite consistent setbacks that raise questions about the strategic calculus behind this focus.

6. Force follows the "one and done" model 

President Trump favors short, targeted military strikes over prolonged engagements. Operations in Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen aimed to change government policies rather than overthrow regimes entirely. In Venezuela, the administration removed Maduro but retained most existing officials, working through local proxies to avoid the governance challenges that followed Iraq. This approach reflects aversion to long wars like Afghanistan and Iraq while accepting the risk of limited durability.

7. Alliances endured through transactional bargains 

NATO survived but only after allies accepted sharp increases in defense spending commitments and major U.S. weapons purchases. Congress has not challenged President Trump's foreign policy actions, giving him free rein on issues that would have triggered opposition in previous administrations. The administration treats alliances as burden sharing arrangements requiring measurable returns rather than values based partnerships, holding democracies to higher standards than autocracies.

8. Tariffs replaced sanctions as the primary economic tool 

The administration deployed tariffs aggressively both to punish adversaries and to pursue industrial policy goals like reshoring manufacturing. Unlike sanctions favored by previous administrations, tariffs create immediate pressure for bilateral negotiation and can be renegotiated repeatedly. President Trump threatened Canada with massive tariffs over potential China trade deals rather than confronting Beijing directly, illustrating the preference for applying pressure through allies.

9. Western Hemisphere priorities emerged unexpectedly 

Public statements about acquiring Greenland, reclaiming the Panama Canal, and integrating Canada marked a departure from first term rhetoric. The National Security Strategy formalized this through the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, making the Western Hemisphere a central priority. The shift caught analysts by surprise and represents either genuine territorial ambition or strategic repositioning to assert regional primacy.

10. Three scenarios define the range of outcomes

• Best case: Continued disruption without systemic failure, which Dr. Weitz argues approximates the current state. No alliance collapses, no uncontrolled wars, sustained economic growth despite tariff friction, and allies gradually adapt to the new transactional framework.

• Worst case: Cumulative damage where the dollar loses reserve currency status through overuse of economic coercion, allies abandon the U.S. for alternative partnerships, and decades of strategic advantage are traded for short term transactional gains in what some have termed "superpower suicide."

• Black swan: President Trump's early exit from office through retirement or other causes, elevating Vice President Vance to the presidency with his foreign policy preferences still largely unknown and untested on the global stage.