Syria in Flux - What Lies Ahead?

Six months after the collapse of the Assad regime, Syria is undergoing one of the most complex transitions in the modern Middle East. Can a fragile new government navigate economic collapse, armed fragmentation, and shifting regional dynamics—without triggering renewed instability? On June 25, 2025, Wikistrat hosted a webinar with Charles Lister to explore the trajectory of Syria’s post-Assad transition and the evolving balance of power within and beyond its borders.

Dr. Charles Lister is a senior fellow and Director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute (MEI), specializing in Syria, terrorism, and insurgency across the Levant. He also serves as a consultant to the United Nations’ International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) for Syria and as an expert witness and advisor on counterterrorism for U.S., European, and Australian law enforcement and judicial bodies.

Key Insights:

1. The New Syrian Government Gained Unprecedented Global Legitimacy 

In just six months, 71 foreign governments visited Damascus, rapidly normalizing the transitional government under Ahmed al-Shara. Backing from the Trump administration—including sanctions relief and economic engagement—was the decisive factor in shifting Syria’s diplomatic isolation.

2. Ahmed al-Sharaa Is the Linchpin of the Transition 

Lister emphasized that Syria’s post-Assad transition is held together by one man: “If he wasn’t in charge, everything would’ve fallen apart already.” His personal transformation—from jihadist leader to elite statesman—has earned domestic and regional credibility. But his removal would risk total collapse.

3. The Economic Crisis Is Catastrophic—But Early Gains Are Visible 

With 90% of the population below the poverty line and over half the country’s infrastructure destroyed, recovery is daunting. Still, the World Bank issued its first grant in 40 years, Qatar is financing power infrastructure, and public sector salaries are set to rise dramatically.

4. Syria Remains Hyper-Militarized and Fragile 

Roughly 240,000 armed men are still active across former rebel, Kurdish, regime, and local self-defense forces. Establishing a monopoly on force and preventing a return to sectarian conflict will be a slow, fragile process requiring long-term DDR efforts.

5. Iran’s Role Has Been Severed 

Unlike Russia or the Gulf states, Iran has no relationship with the new government and is reportedly supporting a failed insurgency. Syrian authorities are actively intercepting Hezbollah-bound arms shipments, signaling a decisive break from the Assad-era alliance.

6. Israel Risks Undermining a Willing Partner 

Despite repeated signals of non-aggression from Damascus, Israel has conducted over 1,000 strikes and 300 ground incursions. Lister warned that this approach could trigger a self-fulfilling spiral of escalation, even though Syria has not retaliated once.

7. The Foreign Fighter Question Remains Dangerous 

Syria has absorbed 3,000 Uyghur militants into its new military, a move quietly tolerated by Washington. While controversial, this approach was seen as the least destabilizing option. Their future status—and degree of control—remains an open security challenge.

8. Refugee Returns Have Begun, But the Crisis Persists 

About 500,000 refugees have returned so far, but donor fatigue is worsening humanitarian conditions. The UN’s aid fund is only 9% funded for 2025, raising fears that Syrians may continue fleeing, even without war, simply due to economic despair.

Syria stands at a fragile but pivotal moment. As Charles Lister noted, a best-case scenario is already in motion—but built entirely around a single figure. If Ahmed al-Shara falters, so does the transition. Success depends on slowly rebuilding institutions, resisting sectarian relapse, and avoiding external provocations. Whether Syria stabilizes or collapses again will hinge on keeping this narrow path intact.