Updated: May 25
On April 19-26, Wikistrat ran an interactive online simulation to assess how new negotiations over the nuclear issue will impact the US, Iran, the Gulf States, and Israel.
About the Simulation
Since entering the White House, the Biden Administration has declared its intent to renew talks with Iran, stating that the US “would accept an invitation from the European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the P5+1 and Iran to discuss a diplomatic way forward on Iran’s nuclear program.”
Renewed talks between the two countries could break the stalemate over Iranian compliance with the agreement and US sanctions against Tehran. Any such negotiations could potentially impact not only the US and Iran but also regional actors such as the Gulf States and Israel.
To assess how different nuclear deal talks scenarios will impact the stability of the Middle East, Wikistrat ran an online simulation of events and responses. 90 leading experts participated, contributing 39 policy proposals and 167 comments in the process of exploring different scenarios of the nuclear talks with Iran and their impact on regional stability.
The report also includes executive interviews, with Michael Doran, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute, specializing in Middle East security issues; and Ali Bakeer, Advisor, Gulf State Analytics.
According to Einat Elazari, Director of Research and Analysis at Wikistrat: "One of the most notable insights is that the crowd of experts was certain that regional cooperation (especially Israel and the Gulf state) against Iran will increase in any given scenario, while the majority of experts did not anticipate any serious threat to Iran's stability." noted that "this is an indication of the assumption of many experts that almost no scenario will push the US to support or initiate a serious attack against Iran, and that Iran will manage to stay on its feet despite the tremendous economic and political pressure it is currently under."
Furthermore, according to Adam Hoffman, Head of Middle East Desk at Wikistrat, "One of the key insights that emerged from the experts' comments in the simulation was that getting Iran back into the JCPOA is only one of many questions regarding Iran and the region's stability. If Iran refuses to return to the agreement, it might trigger a nuclear arms race in the Gulf, as each country will spend significantly more on developing its nuclear capabilities. Yet even if Iran agrees to return to the agreement but the United States doesn't take into consideration regional actors' concerns regarding Iran's behavior, the likelihood for conflict will remain high, and could push these actors (mainly the Gulf States and Israel) to look toward powers other than the US to guarantee their security."