Trump 2.0: Foreign Policy Implications of the US 2024 Elections

As Donald Trump returns to the White House, the geopolitical chessboard is about to be dramatically reset. In a special series of webinars, Wikistrat CEO Oren Kesler is exploring the global implications of "America First 2.0". The first webinar in the series, featuring Dr. Richard Weitz, offers a high-level analysis of the foreign policy shifts we might expect under Trump's new administration

Dr. Richard Weitz is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute. His research interests include European and Eurasian regional security developments as well as US foreign and defense policies.

Key Insights:

1. Leadership Philosophy and Administrative Direction

Key Appointments: The Trump administration is expected to prioritize loyalty and disruptive innovation in appointments, often favoring individuals with limited traditional experience in their respective fields.
Civil Service Reform: Renewed efforts may target restructuring federal agencies, expanding political appointees, and reducing "deep state" influence, building on incomplete reforms from the previous term.
Generational Shift: Emphasis on younger, media-savvy leaders to energize public perception and administration goals.

2. Defense Policy and Military Modernization

Operational Efficiency: Plans to reduce bureaucratic layers within the Department of Defense, enabling faster tactical decision-making and shifting focus from "tooth-to-tail" to combat-ready force structures.
Defense Contracts: A push for increased participation by non-traditional tech companies in defense innovation, with attention to AI, drones, and hypersonic weapons.
Cultural Reforms: Repeal of diversity and inclusion mandates, potential reinstatement of transgender military bans, and reduced civilian oversight in military operations.

3. Geopolitical Strategies

Russia and Ukraine: The administration aims to end the Ukraine conflict quickly through a mix of military escalation ("turbocharging" aid) or diplomacy, possibly bypassing Ukraine for direct U.S.-Russia negotiations.
China: A potential reassessment of U.S.-China relations, with a focus on addressing economic tensions, trade policies, and technology competition while maintaining strategic ambiguity on military commitments like Taiwan.
Middle East & Iran: A return to maximum pressure sanctions and close coordination with Israel on countering Iranian influence and nuclear ambitions.

4. Emerging Domains: AI, Space, and Nuclear Posture

AI Innovation: Calls for a Manhattan Project-style initiative in AI, focusing on rapid military applications while easing regulatory constraints.
Space Expansion: Continued investment in space capabilities, relying heavily on private-sector partnerships and broadening the Space Force’s role.
Nuclear Strategy: Potential modernization of nuclear arsenals, focusing on readiness, expanded missile defense systems, and increased production of advanced delivery systems.

5. Alliances and Global Commitments

NATO & Allies: Trump 2.0 is expected to demand greater financial commitments from allies like NATO members, Japan, and South Korea, with an emphasis on transactional relationships.
Trade Policies: A preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral ones, aiming to reindustrialize the U.S. while leveraging tariffs and energy dominance to counter rivals.
Unpredictability: Trump’s openness to unconventional diplomacy, as seen in past engagements with North Korea and Afghanistan, may lead to surprising new initiatives.

6. Domestic and Economic Impacts on Foreign Policy

Deficit Reduction: Domestic budget constraints and fiscal conservatism within the Republican majority may limit defense spending and international commitments.
Peace vs. Stability: While critics anticipate heightened global turmoil, proponents argue that a more assertive U.S. could force resolutions to protracted conflicts.

Learn more about the other webinars in the series here.