Updated: May 22
In our latest Wikistrat Podcast, Wikistrat's CEO, Oren Kesler interviewed Dr. Fernando Brancoli, an expert on Brazil politics and society to discuss the trifecta of crises in Brazil - health, economic, and political, resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dr. Fernando Brancoli is an Associate Professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and an associate researcher at the Orfalea Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara, US.
Hi everyone, my name is Oren Kesler. I'm Wikistrat’s CEO, and this is another episode of the Wikistrat podcast. Today, I'm very honored to invite to our podcast an expert on Brazil politics and society, Fernando Brancoli. Fernando is a professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, is an expert not only on Brazil's politics but also on its social affairs. We are today going to discuss the situation in Brazil in the light, or I would say in the shadow of the COVID-19 situation. Fernando, thank you so much for joining us. It's a pleasure to have you onboard this podcast.
Thank you, Oren, the pleasure is mine.
Fernando, I would like to start with a general question. How would you describe the current situation in Brazil? What do you think are the main roots of the situation that's currently going on in Brazil in terms of the COVID-19 situation?
Well, MSF, the humanitarian group, just described the situation here in Brazil last week as a humanitarian crisis. Well, I would say that I agree with this description, and will also say that we have a combination of crises at the end of the day. I mean, this is not only a humanitarian and a sanitary crisis related to the virus but also an economic crisis, combined into a political crisis. So the situation is really, really bad right now.
The scale of deaths is massive. Our health system is beginning to collapse. If you look at the numbers related to the economic side, it's also getting quite bad. All the provisions for the future are also really, really complicated. Politically, the country is being led by Bolsonaro, which I think our listeners probably heard about, and he's not helping at all. He's basically trying to survive right now. So the situation is really bad.
In this sense, we have no central coordination for those three crises: health, economic, and political. The president is fighting with the state governors, that are fighting with the mayors. We don't have coordination also regarding the economic side in the sense that there's a huge discussion since the beginning of the pandemic that the government should be providing some sort of national amount of money for people to stay at home to keep the quarantine, so they don't have to go to the streets, especially the poor people to work.
On the political side, well, this is also combined, of course, to the political side in the sense that a lot of the opposition right now is trying to basically enjoy or use this moment to get Bolsonaro out of power. It's a mess. It's a gigantic crisis. I would say it's the biggest crisis in 100 years, probably in Brazil. Most of my colleagues who are analyzing the country right now, I say would agree with this. Well, things are dire.
Would you say this is... I mean, you mentioned this is the worst crisis Brazil has been going through in the last 100 years. Would you say this is an opening to potential military intervention in Brazil, meaning going back to the days where the military was in charge of Brazilian politics?
Well, this is a question I've been trying to answer for the last month in the sense that we do have right now a sort of mixed military government, although I would say part of the sort of democratic system is still being maintained. We have right now more than 6,000 militaries in different government positions from really low-level positions in different ministries, such as economy, foreign affairs, even health, but we also have former military and even active military personnel in ministries. For example, just about last month, we changed our health minister, but it was an active general in the health ministry. We already have a sort of a mixed military government.
I've been teaching the military for the last few years. We had this sort of proximity between academia and the military. They're trying to sound more professional, so they were having courses with us at the university from, I don't know, public management to human rights respect, and stuff like this. Well, for us, it was a bit of a surprise that all this professionalization who are now being used to basically support Bolsonaro.
I don't think we'll have right now, we don't have all the [conditions] to have a military coup, at least not in the same model that we had in the '60s, for example, or what we would traditionally describe as a military coup. But what we could have is this sort of dire and extreme situation that basically what the military would say is that they will have to control parts of the government and stuff like this. They will say it's not a coup, but at the end of the day, this could be described as a lack of democratic change and stuff like this.
I don't know if I'm being clear, but I will not say we'll have a traditional coup in the sense of tanks on the street, the president being jailed and stuff like this, but since the military are already on the government, what we could have is basically the spreading their control of the government in such a high level, that at the end of the day, you basically wake up one day and they are more in charge than ever. At the end of the day, also, what I would like to emphasize is that what we described as Brazilian institutions, like the public officer and the judges and stuff like these, are already sort of reluctant to deal with Bolsonaro in the sense that he have such, or he were able to get such massive support from the military.
Again, I'm more scared of this dubious or ethereal military support than soldiers on the street, tanks, and stuff like this. Maybe one day I will be talking to you again in a couple of months and say, well, we are already living in a dictatorship, but we didn't have the sort of spectacular or traditional military coup. I don't know if I answered you, but that's how I feel this moment right now.
Do you think that when we look at Brazilian politics and the political situation right now, Bolsonaro has any potential rivalries and potential position that is effective and can show competition to him and take over, or do you think that we're likely to see a continuation of Bolsonaro's governance after the Brazil 2022 elections as well, considering the current situation and the failure of the government to deal with it?
Well, Oren, if you had asked me the same question about three months ago, I would say, no, Bolsonaro's being on the government without any sort of opposition. The center-left who was trying to create any sort of control about his work was not doing a really good job. But three months ago, the Supreme Court decided that Lula, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president is now able again to run for president in 2022. This has been a long discussion, a legal discussion because Lula was put into jail a couple of years ago related to corruption charges. He was more than a year in jail.
Basically what the Supreme Court decided right now is that the whole operation that put Lula into jail, Operation Car Wash, probably our listeners heard about this, this gigantic operation related to corruption, but a lot of politicians into jail. The Supreme Court decided that the Car Wash Operation specifically for Lula was not legal. So Lula is now free again to run for the presidency. Right now there is a huge chance that he will probably get elected in a year. Lula will get elected.
All the polls, I know it's still a bit far, we have a year to the polls, but every single number that we have right now put Lula in the front row, and say that he's going to win Bolsonaro no matter the case. Lula is already sort of running around the country, gathering governors, getting people that are not that happy to Bolsonaro. Probably our listeners and you, Oren, you remember that when Lula was in power, was basically a sort of really good moment for Brazil. I mean, you can remember the cover of The Economist, the magazine, with the statue of Christ the Redeemer in Rio de Janeiro going up to the skies like a rocket.
Well, Lula was quite fortunate also to have a huge boom on the value of commodities during his presidency, so Brazil does have a lot of money and was trying to position himself as a sort of leader in the global south with the bricks, also in Latin America. I mean, inside Brazil, we were getting richer. Brazil basically eradicates hunger. A lot of poverty was also being reduced. We can also discuss in another moment all the complications regarding the Lula government, regarding corruption and stuff like this, but there is a huge perception in a larger part of the population that this was the last time that Brazil was functioning, that Brazil was quite well. So all these memories now coming back, Lula is playing his game again, saying, "You remember when I was president how things were, and how everything is happening right now." For example, he got vaccinated on live television. Bolsonaro has been fighting vaccines for quite some time.
Just after Lula got vaccinated on live TV, Bolsonaro changed his behavior related to the pandemic quite well. He sacked his health ministry, the general I was speaking about, Pazuello. He put a civilian in charge, a doctor, and he said that he's going to buy a lot of vaccines, that he's basically going to behave like, I don't know, a normal president. For me, it has been quite interesting to talk to congressmen the last few weeks, to even governors, from Rio de Janeiro, the mayor, basically to understand how they perceive the situation, and everybody's saying that things are changing. If the numbers, they are maintaining the last month. I mean, all the polls saying that Lula is probably going to win. People see he's getting motion. He'll probably get a lot of support from other political leaders, and well, Bolsonaro maybe will lose in a year. I mean, everything is quite open, but now for the very first time, we have this opportunity. So things are going to change quite fast.
I would say to people who are trying to understand Brazil right now, one of the key points is how Lula's candidacy to the president will behave, how much support he will get from all the politicals, and also how the economic leaderships, I mean, how the great industrials and people with money at the end of the day, who they will support because they are also getting quite mad with Bolsonaro. I mean, the huge organizations related to industry and to commerce and stuff like this in Brazil have been doing some public statements. Again, Bolsonaro says that the way he basically organized didn't organize. At the end of the day, the pandemic created a lot of trouble for Brazil. Maybe if they start to make statements also supporting Lula, they will have a big shift regarding this.
Well, just to keep talking and maybe have another question, we just had in Brazil a public investigation opened by the congressmen, by senators, to try to investigate how Bolsonaro dealt with the pandemic. This is happening right now. This is just being open. We call this [foreign language] in Portuguese, it's a commission opened by congressmen trying to investigate the pandemic, or how the government behaves related to the pandemic. The congressmen have a lot of power in the sort of committee. They can, for example, summon the president to inquiry. They can summon ministries. They can ask for bank statements. They can open public records, telephone records, for example. So things are going to change really, really fast in the next few weeks, I would say, I mean, from Bolsonaro getting out of power to Bolsonaro strengthening his power, everything's possible right now. But what we do know is that this sort of morosity, this opposition without any sort of real power against Bolsonaro, that's what we perceive in the last month, this is completely changed right now, and things will be really, really different in the next months.
Fascinated to see how somewhat Bolsonaro has... I mean, objectively, I think it will be fair to say that he hasn't succeeded in dealing with the dynamic without even saying that he failed to deal with the pandemic, still has a large basis of support and a very strong basis of support. Can you give us some analysis on who supports him and what are those pillars of support that basically keeps him in power and keeps him so popular among the Brazilian public?
Well, we have this complicated discussion regarding support, because for example, the last president just before Bolsonaro, Michel Temer, ended his government with 7% of support, only 7% of Brazilians say that they support the government, and he was still in power because he still got a lot of support from the economic elite and from congressmen. At the end of the day, if you get the right support, you could still be in power. But related to Bolsonaro, right now, all the numbers are saying that he's still maintaining support around 20 to 25 percent of the population.
People who are supporting Bolsonaro right now according to all the statistics are basically 20% of the population, and it's a combination of religious people, especially evangelicals, we have part of the economic elite in Brazil, they still support him. At the end of the day, he's also being quite supported by congressmen, especially the lower chamber, basically because he opened his government creating these sorts of political bribes to the congressmen. I mean, every single position right now in ministries, in the executive or even the ministry itself is being chosen by those congressmen, by people that are being indicated by those congressmen, so the government right now is being run also by them.
Right now he's still got some large support, I would say, especially if you think about how Brazil is dealing with the pandemic, we are now the center of the pandemic. We have the largest numbers in the world. Our economy is being scrambled. Brazil's currency has lost a lot of its power. I think it's the weakest currency in the world if you compare it since the beginning of the pandemic. He still maintains quite some power, I mean, 20%, and there is no sign that he will, I mean, get out of power through the popular commotion, especially because, well, since we are in the middle of the pandemic, we don't have right now people on the streets protesting, we don't have a lot of commotion on the street.
But well, at the end of the day, his strategy regarding the pandemic, although it was destructive, it was, I would say, some people are describing it as a crime, as a genocide, there's a workout. I mean, we have these incredible bad numbers regarding the sanitary crisis, but he's still being supported by a fifth of the population and by congressmen. Although he's having some trouble, at the end of the day, I would say it did maintain, it did payout.
I think in the context of the pandemics, it's more about getting kind of herd immunity in a way without actively taking measures such as quarantine and social distancing and enforcing other active measures that were taken by others in order to prevent the spread of the disease, and that was basically the strategy that the government of Brazil has chosen to take, which is a strategy of, I would say, lack of any action to counter the pandemic in order not to also have any economic restrictions and access and movement restrictions in a way. Would that be correct, kind of a way to describe this?
Yes. Completely correct. Since the very beginning, Bolsonaro has been quite vocal saying that this was just a normal flu, that nobody should panic. And then after the number of deaths started to grow, he said that he had this sort of magical drug to deal with the pandemic, Chloroquine, which was the very same drug that Trump was offering to the US, but then he gave up, but we maintain this. He even asked the army to start to produce this drug, Hydroxychloroquine, although there is no scientific support regardless. He was basically crowding with people all the time, not using a mask. But I would say that at the end of the day it was really catastrophic for Brazil that different from other places or other countries. Even here in Latin America, there was really little support for people to stay at home.
We have this saying right now in Brazil that people had to choose between bread or the virus, where poor people basically had to decide if they stay at home like the doctors were saying on TV to avoid large crowds, to avoid the spread of the virus, or if they should go home to get something to eat. I mean, the number of poor people in Brazil has been rising really, really fast. Since the federal government had the power to create a sort of financial help to help people, it was really slow regarding those issues. People were back in the street saying, "Well, I cannot stay at home. I have to do something. I have to work or do something to get a job or to eat." At the very same time, even economically, who owns, I don't know, large stores and stuff, they say, "Well, yeah, people should be in the street. We have herd immunity." We have all this discussion that this is a really... I mean, it's not such a big deal. It's just the flu.
The president said that since he was an athlete, even if he got the virus, he will not feel about this. So there's a lot of people saying, "Well, this is not a big deal." And then at the end of the day, you also had all these conspiracy theories when the numbers started to grow: that the virus was a sort of Chinese conspiracy, the vaccines, they were inoculating other viruses in people. I know this can sound a bit crazy to our listeners, but in Brazil, those conspiracy theories were strong. People were using them or spreading them through WhatsApp. For example, I live in a sort of residential area here in Rio de Janeiro. People that live around me are basically also university professors, doctors, lawyers. So people who went to universities, and a lot of my neighbors, do believe in this kind of thing that using masks is a communist plot, or that the vaccines, they possess a ch