Updated: Nov 21
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, followed by President Xi’s further consolidation of power in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, has raised concerns that the leadership in Beijing is sensing a window of opportunity to launch a military attack against Taiwan. What is the likelihood of such an event within the next 24 months? What might inﬂuence China’s political leadership to take the risk and engage in war against Taiwan? And what signals could indicate that China has decided to take such action?
Wikistrat ran a simulation with ten of the world’s leading experts on China, exploring scenarios of a Chinese military action against Taiwan taking place in 2023 or 2024. Read the simulation report here: