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The War in Ukraine: Entering a New Phase?

Updated: Jul 6

Following headlines of front-line shifts and rumors of a “new phase” in the Ukraine war, is the conflict truly evolving—or are these continuations of deeper, long-term trends? On July 3, Wikistrat hosted Keir Giles to assess Russia’s trajectory, Ukraine’s resilience, and Europe’s readiness in a grinding war that may shape the continent’s future. As the conflict slips from the headlines, the stakes for Europe’s security are only growing

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Keir Giles is a Senior Consulting Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, specializing in Russian military strategy, information warfare, and cybersecurity. He is the author of Russia’s War on Everybody (2022), and co-author of the 2023 Chatham House report How to End Russia’s War on Ukraine.


Key Insights

  1. The War Is Not Entering a New Phase—It’s a Continuation Despite media narratives, Giles emphasized the war remains a brutal, slow-moving battle of attrition. Russia continues to advance incrementally at immense human cost while Ukraine aims to outlast Moscow, exacting damage as it withdraws.

  2. Diplomacy Stalled: No Peace on the Horizon 

    The so-called “peace talks” are largely performative. Moscow seeks Ukraine’s capitulation, not compromise, while U.S. efforts under Trump have often aligned with Russian demands, leaving Ukraine isolated as the conflict drags on.

  3. Russia’s Objectives Remain Imperial 

    Putin’s stated goal of correcting “historic mistakes” continues to drive Russian policy, with ambitions extending beyond Ukraine to other post-Soviet states. This is not simply Putin’s war—it is supported by large segments of Russian society and the ruling elite.

  4. Ukraine’s Survival Hinges on External Support 

    Giles argued the true center of gravity is not on the battlefield but in the resolve of Ukraine’s backers. As U.S. aid wavers, Europe’s slow response leaves Ukraine vulnerable, while Russia’s partners, including North Korea and China, face no comparable constraints.

  5. China’s Quiet Leverage Over Russia 

    Russia’s dependency on China has accelerated, transforming Moscow into a client state with limited options. Yet within Russia, open acknowledgment of China as a threat remains taboo, deepening strategic vulnerabilities.

  6. Technological Innovation Is Reshaping the War 

    Drone warfare, sea-denial tactics in the Black Sea, and rapid battlefield adaptation are transforming how both sides fight, outpacing Western defense bureaucracies and reshaping future conflicts.

  7. Economic Pain Deferred, Not Avoided 

    Sanctions and the war will cause long-term damage to Russia’s economy, but for now, high spending and capital flight restrictions have boosted incomes for many Russians, maintaining domestic support for the war.

  8. Future Scenarios: Best, Worst, and Wild Card

    - Best Case: Now largely out of reach, would have required early Western resolve to deter or defeat Russia.

    - Worst Case: Ukrainian collapse, leading to Russian subjugation and exploitation of Ukraine’s resources for future aggression.

    - Wild Card: A Ukrainian breakthrough triggering a political crisis in Moscow, forcing a pause or end to the conflict.


Russia’s war on Ukraine is far from over, and the window for a decisive, constructive resolution is closing. As Keir Giles noted, unless Russia suffers a strategic defeat that compels it to abandon imperial ambitions, the conflict—and the instability it fuels across Europe—will persist, forcing Ukraine and its allies to confront hard choices in the years ahead.


Further Reading 

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