The South China Sea has emerged as a critical flashpoint in global geopolitics, with China's aggressive maritime ambitions challenging regional stability and sovereignty. As part of Wikistrat’s special webinar series, "U.S. Foreign Policy Under Trump 2.0," CEO Oren Kesler hosted Rear Admiral (Ret.) Rommel Jude Ong, former Vice Commander of the Philippine Navy, to explore the Philippines' evolving defense strategy, the dynamics of U.S.-Philippines relations, and the broader implications of China's "escalation dominance"
Rear Adm. (Ret.) Rommel Jude G. Ong is a Senior Research Fellow at the Ateneo School of Government. He retired from military service in 2019 as Vice Commander of the Philippine Navy.
Key Insights:
China’s Escalation Dominance
China employs "escalation dominance," using hard power (Navy, Coast Guard, militia) and sharp power (propaganda, economic influence) to dictate the pace of conflicts. This dominance leaves little room for meaningful de-escalation.
"As long as China enjoys escalation dominance, the only way China will accept de-escalation is in the form of appeasement. What is theirs is theirs, and what is ours is also theirs."
Breaking this dominance requires collective denial or cost-imposition strategies targeting China’s vulnerabilities, particularly its reliance on maritime trade, which constitutes 95% of its economy.
The Philippines’ Strategic Shifts
With its domestic insurgency largely resolved, the Philippines is transitioning to a "Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense" strategy. This involves doctrinal shifts, restructuring the armed forces, and acquiring new capabilities tailored to conventional threats.
"We cannot frame capability development in the Philippines in terms of whatever China thinks. If China is the benchmark of our decisions, we’re not going to develop at all."
The Philippines has invested in asymmetric solutions, such as the BrahMos missile system and drones, inspired by Ukraine’s innovative use of drones against Russia.
Alliances and Partnerships
The U.S.-Philippines alliance remains central, with expanded trilateral engagements with Japan and South Korea. Australia and Canada are potential partners, while ASEAN’s capacity to counter China is limited by internal divisions and China’s economic leverage.
"If there is going to be a sort of informal Asia NATO, the natural leader of that construct would be Japan."
Rear Admiral Ong suggested Japan, India, and Australia could lead region-specific coalitions to counterbalance China’s influence: Japan in East Asia, India in the Indian Ocean, and Australia in the mid-Pacific.
China’s Influence Operations
Chinese propaganda has evolved from promoting pro-China narratives to anti-war messaging, aiming to undermine U.S.-Philippines security cooperation. However, the Philippines’ transparency initiatives and public support for sovereignty (80-90%) have countered these efforts.
"Next year, we will have local elections. For the first time, foreign policy will become a domestic policy issue. Local politicians who spout the Chinese line will have difficulty in the polls."
The Taiwan Contingency
The Philippines’ proximity to Taiwan makes it strategically significant in potential conflicts. China has engaged in influence activities in northern Philippines, shaping the region for potential use as a staging ground.
"The decisive point in any Taiwan scenario would be the Bashi Channel. To control it, China may have to occupy some Philippine islands."
Rear Admiral Ong also highlighted the potential for evacuation scenarios via the port of Kaohsiung, underscoring the Philippines’ logistical role in a Taiwan conflict.
Japan’s Role in Regional Security
Japan’s military modernization is essential for addressing U.S. capacity gaps in East Asia. Integrated missile defense systems are identified as a critical area requiring further development.
"I look at Japan as the middle power that can mitigate the U.S.’s weaknesses in East Asia. I support Japan’s modernization efforts."
Scenarios for De-escalation
De-escalation remains unlikely unless China's escalation dominance is disrupted. As long as China dictates the terms, any de-escalation will come in the form of appeasement.
"We need to find a way to disrupt escalation dominance first before we can even consider talking about de-escalation."
Concluding Remarks: Rear Admiral Ong emphasized the importance of collective action among like-minded states, innovative deterrence strategies, and public transparency to address China’s growing influence. He concluded, "Chinese strength is built on the weaknesses of other states. Until we address our own, we won’t see a peaceful region."
Learn more about the other webinars in the series here.
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