Iran's Water Crisis: Strategic Assessment 2025-2029

Iran is confronting the most severe water crisis in its modern history, and the consequences now extend far beyond dry taps. With reservoirs near Tehran at single-digit capacity and officials publicly warning of potential evacuation, governance failures are turning environmental stress into political crisis: a test of regime credibility, a flashpoint for social unrest, and a driver of mounting tensions with Afghanistan. Wikistrat's new report maps the strategic landscape through 2029: where protest risk concentrates, why mega-projects won't solve the problem, and what could tip managed scarcity into cascading failure

This report was written by researcher Mohammad Shajari as part of his internship program.

Tehran and other major urban centers have imposed overt rationing and nightly pressure cuts after a historically dry autumn. Key reservoirs serving the capital have fallen to critical levels: Lar Dam sits at just 1% capacity, Latyan at 11%.

The roots of this crisis are structural: decades of groundwater over-extraction, agricultural policies favoring water-intensive crops, and chronic underinvestment in distribution infrastructure. Subsidence is now damaging airports and transport corridors, while wetland collapse at the Hamun drives dust storms and livelihood losses that amplify social grievances.

In a new report, Wikistrat maps the strategic landscape through 2029: how rationing becomes a permanent feature of urban life, where protest risk concentrates, why supply-side mega-projects won't solve the problem, and what triggers could tip managed scarcity into cascading failure. It examines the geopolitical dimension, the Helmand River tensions that escalate with every dry year, and the governance gaps that turn environmental stress into political crisis.

Download full report here

Report preview: