Updated: Sep 19
During Sep. 21-26 Wikistrat will host an interactive simulation with 30 world-leading experts examining a hypothetical scenario of a Russian invasion into Belarus.
Long-term watchers of Belarus are accustomed to hearing that “this time it’s different.”
The country’s situation has been stably precarious for decades, as President Aleksandr Lukashenko adroitly manages the balancing act between Russia and the West, extracting the maximum possible benefits from both.
It follows that current questions over the August 2020 election and its aftermath, entailing increased Russian pressure and renewed Western disapprobation following the latest human rights crackdown, are not unprecedented. Nevertheless, the Belarus situation is not sustainable indefinitely.
Western nations, and Belarus itself, are likely eventually to have to deal with a situation where Russia feels either that its patience is exhausted or that developments in Belarus pose an actual threat that demands intervention.
To assess the potential evolution of the relations between Russia and Belarus, Wikistrat is running a wargame that will examine the impact of an extreme-case scenario on the relations between Russia and Belarus. In this scenario, Russia is making a military move into Belarus, following the August 2020 elections.
If you wish to participate or observe the simulation, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org