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Special Report: Four Scenarios for “The Day After” in Gaza

Updated: Feb 18

As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, a new Wikistrat report provides an analysis of four potential trajectories for Gaza by 2026, weighing key factors that could shape the region’s uncertain future and offering vital foresight into the conflict's high-stakes endgame

A complimentary expert panel from February 15, 2024:

Wikistrat Report_ The War in Gaza - Four Scenarios for The Day After
Download PDF • 7.84MB

In the complex and volatile landscape of the ongoing war in Gaza, the Israeli Government finds itself at a critical crossroads while contemplating scenarios for “The Day After.” Engulfed in a quagmire of difficult decisions, Israeli policymakers are ensnared in a debate of a “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t” type that oscillates between unenviable choices and dire consequences. 

Hamas leadership on the other hand, prior to launching the October 7th attack, had envisioned a victory scenario in the aftermath of the conflict. However, as explored in a new report by Wikistrat, this aspiration for victory is fraught with the risk of becoming a Pyrrhic victory, where substantial losses could overshadow the perceived gains. 

The report analyzes four possible scenarios that could unfold in Gaza following the current dynamics of the conflict. The scenarios examine potential trajectories related to issues such as control over Gaza, the extent of Israel’s military presence and the role of third parties.

The report delves into the pivotal elements that are likely to influence the future security situation in Gaza and explores how the current circumstances might unfold, for better or worse, thereby providing a more comprehensive understanding of the evolving security and geopolitical landscape.

“This analysis provides critical foresight into how the volatile circumstances in Gaza could develop over the next two years,” said Wikistrat’s CEO, Oren Kesler. “Key strategic takeaways suggest that Hamas overestimated its ability to gain power in the West Bank, while underscoring the immense costs that would accompany an Israeli occupation of Gaza.”

Download the full report here:

Wikistrat Report_ The War in Gaza - Four Scenarios for The Day After
Download PDF • 7.84MB

On February 15, 2024, Wikistrat CEO Oren Kesler hosted a complimentary expert panel on the topic with two distinguished guest speakers:

Dr. Neil Quilliam is an Associate Fellow with the MENA Programme at Chatham House.

Dr. Colin P. Clarke is the Director of Policy and Research at The Soufan Group and an Associate Research Fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT).

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