With Iran holding Hormuz and the Houthis threatening Bab al-Mandab, both chokepoints around the Arabian Peninsula are contested. ECFR Gulf expert Dr. Cinzia Bianco explains why the Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia tracks the U.S.-Iran war, why the Houthis bypassed Marib's oil to move on the strait, and why Riyadh is seeking a narrow U.S. operation along Yemen's coast. She also lays out the Saudi worst, best, and black swan scenarios, including a Russian-brokered deal over

Wikistrat surveyed eight leading Gulf security experts on how Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar will respond to the US-Iran deal taking shape. The panel converged on Hormuz as the defining red line and on a three-year regional arms race if missile limits are excluded, and split sharply on whether Riyadh goes nuclear.