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Wikistrat Activity: India - Pakistan Tensions

During February of 2019, the situation in South Asia has escalated dramatically. It all started on February 14, when a suicide attack on an Indian paramilitary police convoy, killed at least 40 soldiers. The attack, carried out by Jaish-e-Mohammed, an armed group supported by Pakistan. 

Soon after, India retaliated. On February 26th, Indian warplanes bombed targets inside Pakistan for the first time since the war between the countries in 1971, hitting what Indian officials described as a Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp. On February 27th, matters escalated even further, with Pakistan claiming it had shot down two Indian Air Force jets entering its airspace in Kashmir while detaining one pilot on the ground.

As tensions mount, leaders around the world are getting more and more concerned that further escalation in the situation could lead to war between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

In this activity, we asked our analysts to explore potential pathways for the situation might develop, and analyze the factors that would shape the situation and its implications.


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