Wikistrat launches a four-day strategic simulation today in which its analysts are asked to propose where might be the “next Crimea”.
Russia’s late-February invasion of Ukraine’s Crimea stands in a long history of Russian interventionism in its former Soviet sphere. From its support for Transnistrian secession from Moldova in the early 1990s to the 2008 war with Georgia, Russia has repeatedly asserted its influence while claiming to protect Russian nationals or other Russian interests. Its military doctrine even formalizes a role for the armed forces toward that end. When Russians or Russian “compatriots” are threatened anywhere, the country believes it has a right to intervene.
Given its vast land and naval borders, recent massive military reform and rearmament, strategic and economic interests along its borders, high-profile rising neighbors (notably China), and the fact that many of Russia’s former satellite states are home to either ethnic Russians or Russian speakers, it seems only a matter of time before there is another Russian military intervention. This might be a full-scale invasion, a deniable incursion by special forces or irregulars, or even intimidation through troop movements or cyberattacks.
In this simulation, Wikistrat asks its analytic community to explore where and when the next Russian military intervention might take place, what could lead to it, and how it will be carried out.
Are you interested in participating in simulations like these? Apply for membership to the analytic community here.