The likelihood of a significant price fluctuation in oil and gas over the next six months due to geopolitical events is low, claim some 40 energy and geopolitical analysts from around the world who participated in a crowd-based analytic exercise conducted by Wikistrat this month.
Wikistrat’s experts predict that markets can expect $40–50 per barrel of crude oil for the remainder of 2015. Even in case of significant geopolitical events, prices are unlikely to move higher than $60 per barrel, due to present inventories which are at levels not seen in at least 80 years, generally weak demand and OPEC’s apparent willingness to maintain production in the face of resilient non-OPEC supply.
Despite this assessment, monitoring these events will allow both the private and public sector to generate strategic and operational early warning should oil prices exceed the $40–50 range.
In the report released today, Wikistrat assesses three events that could generate price instability in the short term: social unrest in Venezuela leading to massive social strikes and violent clashes; the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continuing to intensify, leading the European Union to moderately extend the scope of existing sanctions; and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s death throwing one of the largest oil and gas exporters to Europe into a cycle of violence between recently ousted military elites, discontented masses and powerful business interests. Read More →